I don't think your wrong on the jet through on the Satsop as recs only fish about 5% of the Satsop Basin river miles all in the lower reaches. Upper Chehalis will benefit the early arrival though. The QIN have had a no in season adjustment clause in the season agreement in the past but I am not sure about the present and it took PRR to get the information in the past. Other than the movement I and others have documented I am not sure how you could quantify a number / species or expanded runsize to do a redo on the preseason forecast. While the modeled 2020 seasons left Coho available on the Chehalis we were short on the aggregate of all Grays Harbor which the tribe and Feds use unlike WDFW which splits the Hump from the Chehalis for overall management.

The first real indication on numbers we will have will be the QIN harvest which starts around 10/4 and then reporting being what it is the numbers in the following week. ( hopefully ) A number of folks have often wondered why WDFD doesn't utilize a sonar counter as they do in AK in places to get a real count. I guess it would help but our runs have significant species overlap which would make it difficult to sort out I am told.

So we wait to the 1st to see what happens. One thing is NOAA has added a inch to the 10 day river forecast starting today with the 23rd and 24th being the heaviest rain. The Satsop is projected to jump to 1600 CFS which is a 800% increase in flows over 10 days but not records for those days in time. The Chehalis at Porter is projected to crest at around 3200 CFS the 28th which will be a new record for day in time and then drop. It takes two days for the Porter water to make Aberdeen so we will open Oct 1 on the peak of the rise.

The bay below the bridge opens the 23rd as the rains start then will simply depend on how much color the water gets. I think we will get color fast out of the Wishkah as the headwaters are projected at 2 1/2 & 1 1/2 inches the 24th & 25th.