As I was getting information out to folks I also submitted my suggestions posted up for folks to staff. Mike took the time to get back with a 2020 update to share with folks as it is rather important. So unless something really turns our way it looks like the 3/5 box will kick in and the NT fisheries will be around 2000 impacts on wild Coho. Oh ouch!

FROM MIKE SCHARPF:

Just letting you know, we don’t have a final 2020 GH coho escapement at this point and probably won’t by the end of April. But what we have are index redd counts in the Chehalis basin to date from many of the main areas and what we are seeing is about 30 to 40% of the average over the last 15 years or so. The attached file Curt and I put together to track progress in-season. We can also use this to give us an idea what the return is looking like. In none of the expansions does the predicted escapement exceed the goal, all indications are that escapement will be 2,000 to 6,000 below the goal this year. However, these are just the index counts from Curt’s crew’s surveys and doesn’t account for QIN work or the supplemental surveys (QIN surveys don’t account for much of the work in the Chehalis basin). If spawner distribution varied from historical distributions, or flows altered where coho decided to spawn, than this wouldn’t be the best indicator. I don’t think this was the case this year, but that is why we don’t use just the indexes in estimating escapements. Bottom line for me is, based on information on hand, the Chehalis coho escapement for 2020 will be below the goal. We will continue to work on completing the escapement estimate and keep some options in the pocket in case of good news.