Final part is the scope of work for the mortalities on the rec side.


Scope of Work
Workshop to Develop Improved Methods for Predicting the Catch of Salmon in Grays Harbor Fisheries
Draft February 11, 2014

Objective: Develop improved methods for preseason predictions of catch in WDFW-managed salmon fisheries in Grays Harbor.

Technical Team: The intent is that the technical team shall work together to complete a joint report that provides recommendations to improve catch projections. The technical team shall be comprised of three members from the WDFW and three at-large members. The commercial fishery industry will be provided the opportunity to fill one of the three at-large positions.

The technical team tasks are to:

1) Quantitatively evaluate the preseason predictions of catch or encounters in the following fisheries:
a. Recreational Fisheries Chinook
i. Chinook catch or encounters in the Area 2-2 recreational fishery prior to week 40.
ii. Chinook catch or encounters in the Area 2-2 recreational fishery in weeks 40-48.
iii. Chinook catch or encounters in the Chehalis River mainstem recreational fishery.
iv. Chinook catch or encounters in recreational fisheries in each tributary to the Chehalis River.
v. Chinook catch or encounters in the recreational fishery in the Humptulips River.
b. Recreational Fisheries Coho
i. Coho catch or encounters in the Area 2-2 recreational fishery prior to week 40.
ii. Coho catch or encounters in the Area 2-2 recreational fishery in weeks 40-48.
iii. Coho catch or encounters in the Chehalis River mainstem recreational fishery.
iv. Coho catch or encounters in recreational fisheries in each tributary to the Chehalis River.
v. Coho catch or encounters in the recreational fishery in the Humptulips River.
c. Recreational Fisheries Chum
i. Chum catch or encounters in the Chehalis River mainstem recreational fishery.
ii. Chum catch or encounters in recreational fisheries in each tributary to the Chehalis River.
iii. Chum catch or encounters in the recreational fishery in the Humptulips River.
d. Commercial Fisheries -- Chinook
i. Chinook catch or encounters in the commercial fishery in areas 2A and 2D in weeks 40-48.
ii. Chinook catch or encounters in the commercial fishery in area 2C in weeks 40-48

e. Commercial Fisheries Coho
i. Coho catch or encounters in the commercial fishery in areas 2A and 2D in weeks 40-48.
ii. Coho catch or encounters in the commercial fishery in area 2C in weeks 40-48.
f. Commercial Fisheries Chum
i. Chum catch or encounters in the commercial fishery in areas 2A and 2D in weeks 40-48.
ii. Chum catch or encounters in the commercial fishery in area 2C in weeks 40-48.

2) For a minimum of the 10 fisheries with the worst performance, develop and quantitatively evaluate (using jackknife or bootstrap hindcasting) alternative predictors.

3) Using the results from the hindcasting, recommend methods to predict the catch or encounters for each fishery in 2014.

Process:
February 3-4: Identify members of technical team (Scott, Hamilton).
February 13: Information on predicted and actual catches distributed to technical team (Scott)
February 3-28: Technical team conducts analysis and prepares recommendations. The technical team shall meet together a minimum of two times to complete the assigned tasks.
March 10: Technical team presents analysis and recommendations at public workshop.
March 12: Technical team presentation posted to WDFW webpage.

Workshop Format:
1) The workshop will be conducted in Olympia on March 10, 2014, 2PM, Natural Resources Building, room 172.
2) The length of the workshop will be approximately 1.5 hours, with the following format:
Introduction (10 minutes)
Technical Team presentation (50 minutes)
Technical Team addresses questions from the public (30 minutes)
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Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in