The modeled Chinook impacts for NT Commercials are 49 H and 100 W. Rec bay are combined C&R mortalities are H&W 234, freshwater river 333 and Chehalis Tribal ( which are part of the states share ) is 257 W. The QIN are modeled at 3566 combined H&W.

Now that everyone's blood pressure is up this, the QIN have federal approval to count all adults spawning in the gravel be it H or W as part natural spawn. The state does not count the spawning fish in that manner so WDFW's model shows expected natural (W) Chinook at 8967 but QIN expected numbers are 10,418 and W escapement goal is 9753. In other words the comanagers do not count fish spawning the same way. To complicate a bit more the Feds count the combined Humptulips and Chehalis as Grays Harbor not separating the two sides of Grays Harbor only Grays Harbor total. Looking at those numbers for combined Grays Harbor Humptulips and Chehalis Chinook harvest the QIN are modeled for combined H&W at 5673 and NT at 4019.

So this, for 2022 Chehalis Chinook Alaska Chinook fisheries will take 11,617, Canadian Chinook fisheries 4,633, Washington coastal 292 which leaves the Chehalis harvestable Chinook at 4626 H&W combined. If we had a Rec Chinook fishery I doubt it could be modeled. You could go boat to boat and never get your feet wet crossing the bay and traffic lights would be needed on the rivers! In other words we would blow the spawning numbers to hell and back in short order. One could argue that the QIN should reduce impacts but with the prior intercept numbers posted above I doubt that the Nation fishers would feel all that charitable.

So the answer to the problem is there is no answer unless the managers come to grips with marine intercept fisheries, which is more likely NOT to happen unless a federal judge forces the issue around ESA stocks.

The way our salmon harvest is managed toward crisis is that simple, that ugly, that just plain stupid. It leaves the Grays Harbor Rec fishers pissing and moaning about a couple hundred fish and reduced to C&R fisheries. Now that is the way things are like it or not.