Well the NT net season is over and it looks like a disaster for the run size estimate. The model predicted a total NT Grays Harbor harvest of 17,566 fish (three species) after adjusting for net drop out and wild release. Actual total GH harvest was 5,409 or 30.8% of the modeled harvest. This is close to the tribal harvest so far at 28% of the model prediction. By species this is 10.4% for Chinook, 46.6% for coho and 26% for Chum. This was a huge miss for the run size prediction! It is too late to hope for the run being late as the second week was much less than the first week of NT netting. I would have expected recreational harvest to be shut down by now.
I ran the combined commercial catch numbers against the pre-season 2019 NOF Model as well this morning.
COHO: QIN at 27% of expected (4697/17293) WDFW at 47% of expected (1995/4223) Combined catches at 31% of expected (6692/21516)
CHUM: QIN at 9.8% of expected (483/4931) WDFW at 26% of expected (3315/12565) Combined catches at 22% of expected (3798/17496)
If these catches are reflective of historic encounters by stat week, the actual runsize for coho is probably about one-third of forecast and the actual runsize for chum is probably closer to one-fifth of forecast.
If these runsize shortfalls are realized, the unfished wild coho run would NOT meet escapement goals with coho failing by ~8K and chum by ~7K
As a GH Advisor, I would have to agree with softbite and SalmoG conceding that the precautionary principle should probably rule the day.
"Let every angler who loves to fish think what it would mean to him to find the fish were gone." (Zane Grey)
"If you don't kill them, they will spawn." (Carcassman)