A bunch of folks have asked me how the river is doing. 68 plus degrees under the boat which is normal. After that it is difficult to quantify things. Each year when we hit the warm cycle the river goes pretty much dead. No bait fish ( above 101 ) just kinda ambles on. I have never figured out if it is DO, PH, temp or just what but it happens. The recent hot spell was every bit 6 weeks long for the river so we have high temps which is normal and flows are low but normal. So what happens that keeps things sorta kinda in a holding pattern. I am clueless but the river is changing over the last few days. Seen a few Sturgeon jump and seals & birds are coming around in numbers. I think it will take a temp drop in the water to put the final part in play so whatever they don't care for is gone. It happens almost every year and this year was about normal.

On the run size. I think it will be short on numbers but time will tell. After that think of a graph of a run with numbers up the left side and weeks across the bottom and the run graphed in. Now it always ( for most but not chum ) starts up week by week then peaks & numbers drop back down. Now take and reduce the size 40%. Two things happen. One the encounters at the start of the run get pretty slim as the weeks stay the same but the front of the run is skinny so now it it really reduced. The weeks before the peak will produce much fewer fish simply because so few fish so much area in tidewater to find them in. So you get the impression of no fish, just not much. Then at the peak the numbers get to the point that it is recognizable be it reduced in numbers. One should keep in mind that WDF&W & the QIN both depend on the rain in the first of November to make escapement. River blows fish run up and dodge harvest. No rain they keep getting hammered and less get up. No rain really messes with escapement.

Then add BC & AK pulling for conservation ( Chinook ) but that is problematic. When the fish come down the pipeline ( not counting Springers ) the fish that were in the front got hammered based on the forecast and the ones at the back end of the parade not as much so that is going make things just weird stream to stream just depends on where your rivers fish were in the parade. The WDF&W expansion of 2 fish limit did nothing. If your averaging half a fish per rod then the extra fish in the bag limit is about selling license to tourist that is all.

So it is a waiting game and frankly it will be the QIN that will first see what is up. Their seasons were set to reduce Chinook impacts and Rec are C&R so once they start it will show after the first sets and I doubt anyone has a clear picture of what is about to happen. If after that set the QIN pull for conservation then it is done period. If they accept the Chinook impacts then the Rec will fit in C&R window for impacts. As Coho go I cannot say anything except no jacks so far, well maybe few is better. Remember now this thing about the water quality or whatever is being slow to tail out which just makes things much more difficult. Time will tell the story rather soon I think.

Edited by Rivrguy (09/11/17 05:33 AM)
Dazed and confused.............the fog is closing in