It took me a while but that thing you hear after every stock broker's advert about "Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance" holds really true for fisheries. Our models are all based on the past. Simply put, as climate warms and flows change we model based on the cooler water with more flow.

Somehow, we have to somehow model the present and account for those changes. There are ways, but they involve updates which are now a no-no, to incorporate tides, flows, temperatures and such. They will likely be sadistically less precise but probably more accurate. And more conservative.

I believe we can do a better job of managing but it will require more staff and lots more huevos on all sides to make hard decisions.