My look at the 2020 thing was driven by looking at GH Chinook the 4 & 5 year age groups perform about the same proportionally. The 3 and 6 year age group are in small numbers but the 3 year number can move up or down in any given year substantially. I do not have a Willapa run reconstruction but it really does not matter much. In 2019 the Willapa River will have 10% of the prior hatchery releases but the 5 year class will be present at the full release in prior years resulting in a much larger number of HOS. Bit of a train wreck to manage I imagine. It is hard to stare into a crystal ball and be accurate but fish math does let one look at probable outcomes and the scenarios that they to dictate harvest.

In 2020 the Willapa River be a stand alone population with a hatchery release of 300 K and change. Harvest will have to be dramatically reduced in the North end of the bay. The only variable is HOW the much much smaller allowed harvest is structured.