With PP up and down I have not been able to track the story but this is another source.


The Brief

Forecasters say El Niño is likely to develop by summer, with a chance it could become a strong or "Super" event.
The pattern typically brings warmer, drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest, raising wildfire risk.

Existing drought and low snowpack in Washington and Oregon could worsen impacts, though spring rainfall may help mitigate conditions.
There are growing signals that the Pacific Ocean is shifting toward an El Niño pattern, and possibly a strong one. While this climate phenomenon originates thousands of miles away, its ripple effects could have real consequences for the Pacific Northwest, especially as we head toward wildfire season.

What is El Niño? Here's why it matters
El Niño is part of a naturally occurring climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. During an El Niño phase, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become warmer than average. That added heat in the ocean influences atmospheric patterns around the globe.

We often see shifts in storm tracks, changes in temperature patterns and an increased likelihood of extreme weather events, from droughts to heavy rainfall, depending on location.

NOAA: El Niño likely developing in 2026
According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, there is a strong chance El Niño conditions will develop between late spring and early summer.

Its latest outlook puts the probability of El Niño forming between May and July at 61%, with El Niño conditions likely to continue through the end of the year. There is also a range of possible intensities, including the potential for a strong or even "very strong" event.

You can view the latest outlook and more discussion here.

A possible "Super El Niño"
Some global climate models, including those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, suggest ocean temperatures could climb significantly in the coming months.

A few scientists have even raised the possibility of an exceptionally strong event, sometimes referred to as a "Super El Niño." That is when the tropical sea surface temperatures rise at least 2 degrees Celsius (3.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. If it does reach that level, it could influence global temperatures, potentially pushing them toward record highs in the next couple of years.

What this means for the Pacific Northwest

Big picture view:
Historically, El Niño tends to bring warmer and drier conditions to the Pacific Northwest, especially during the winter and into the following spring and summer.

That pattern can have a cascading effect, bringing earlier snowmelt, reduced snowpack, and drier soils and vegetation. Those factors can significantly increase wildfire risk during the summer months and early fall.

This year, the region is already showing signs of vulnerability. Washington has declared a statewide drought emergency for the fourth consecutive year, with snowpack running well below normal in many areas. Oregon is facing similar concerns after a warmer-than-average winter and dismal snowpack.

For more on regional drought conditions, see the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Root for some spring rainfall
Despite the concerning forecast, there is still plenty of time for it to change.

One of the most important factors over the next several weeks will be rainfall. A wetter-than-normal spring could help delay drying and reduce early-season fire risk. On the flip side, continued dry conditions would reinforce wildfire concerns heading into summer.

The bottom line
All signs point toward El Niño developing in the coming months, but how strong it becomes remains to be seen.

For the Pacific Northwest, a warmer, drier pattern could increase wildfire risk, especially given existing drought conditions and low snowpack. Spring weather will play a critical role in shaping how the season unfolds.

The Source: Information in this story comes from various weather forecasting agencies and original reporting by the FOX 13 Seattle Weather T