By similar analysis of run-size projection based on in-season gillnet catches, the king run is pretty much on par with preseason expectations.

In contrast, nearly a third of the Chehalis chum run appears to be MIA. The early push of fish was tracking well, then the tribe numbers tanked in their third week of fishing... falling 70% short of expectation.

State nets were intentionally planted on the peak week of the chum run (Halloween) at which time they took over half again as many fish as expected.

Combined QIN/WDFW chum catches in aggregate are nearly one-third less than expected.

Even with last weeks surge in catch, there was no surge of chum in the tidal Chehalis where watchful eyes have been monitoring fish movement the past week. They ain't there.